Gartner Hype Cycle



In the sheets, newer technologies are often analyzed legally. In order to filter out interesting technologies, the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies“ of the research and consulting company Gartner Inc. can prove particularly useful. It shows which technologies are likely to be on the way to a hype, which are currently being hyped, and which have already left the hype behind.


The Hype Cycles of the last two years are shown below. Moving the slider to the right reveals the current Hype Cycle of August 18, 2020. If, however, it is moved to the left, the older Hype Cycle of August 29, 2019 comes to light.




According to Gartner Inc., the first phase of the Hype Cycle begins with an “Innovation Trigger”. Here, the attention is limited to the great interest of the professional audience. Next, attention rises exponentially to the “Peak of Inflated Expectations“ as a result of the intensive reporting. In the third phase, attention plunges into a “Trough of Disillusionment“ due to the unfulfilled expectations. Ultimately, attention rises on a “Slope of Enlightenment“ up to the “Plateau of Productivity“ because of a realistic assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the technology. The initially overrated, immature innovation has become solid technology from a realistic perspective.


The futurologist Roy Amara offers a simplified formulation of the Hype Cycle: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.  

(Amara's Law).


Thus, in addition to filtering out interesting innovations for the Sheets, the Gartner Hype Cycle also serves a second important function: In order to be able to assess the opportunities and risks of a technology as objectively as possible, a step back should be taken to observe the technology in the larger context of its expected development. 


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